Byline: Tony Eluemunor
Nairobi, Dec 21, 2007 (The Nation/All Africa Global Media via COMTEX) -- The likelihood of renewed and more pronounced insecurity in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta and the possibility of President Umaru Yar'Dua's election being annulled don't augur well for the African giant, writes TONY ELUEMUNOR in Abuja
Nigeria's Chief of Naval Staff, Rear Admiral Ganiyu Adekeye, told the navy in November it would receive new weapons in the first quarter of 2008.
Policemen keeping the peace stops and searches youths on the Buguma Road in Ogbakiri, about 50 kilometres from the oil city of Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta: Armed groups have been demanding autonomy and greater control over oil resources in the Niger Delta. Photo/FILE
The admiral further said that the navy was preparing to handle the insurgency in the country's Niger Delta region because the region had become more complex for ordinary security agencies to manage.
Apparently, the conflict was spreading beyond the Bayelsa, Delta and Rivers states to other states such as Calabar.
There are indications that Nigeria will be the great African news maker next year but for the wrong reasons.
One, it is feared that within the next three months, a petition challenging the election of President Umaru Yar'Adua might succeed. Should this happen, Nigeria would be thrown into a situation that its constitution is not equipped to handle.
Second, militants in the oil-rich Niger Delta have resumed blowing up oil pipelines, attacking oil facilities and boasting that they will do more to cripple oil exploitation in the area -including blowing up a 30-kilometer bridge in Lagos, the nation's commercial capital.
The belligerence in the area was being subdued when on September 3, Henry Okah a kingpin in the Niger Delta insurgency and his seafaring companion, Captain Edward Atata were arrested in Angola for alleged gun running. Okah became prominent two years ago when he demanded the release of two Ijaws then facing trial - former Bayelsa Governor Diepriye Alamaiseye and Asari Dokubo, head of the Niger Delta Volunteer Force.
When the two men were released, Okah announced that MEND would unilaterally cease hostilities for a while to allow the newly elected Yar'Adua time to settle down and work on his electoral promises. Thus, while other armed Delta militias degenerated into hostage-taking and were being denounced as mere criminals, MEND remained above that recrimination and even threatened to join government forces in ending the hostage-menace.
Okah's arrest in Angola has derailed the rapprochement between MEND and the government that had been achieved after President Yar'Adua's inauguration in May 2007 when he assigned the task of ending the militancy in the area to his Vice President, Dr Jonathan Goodluck.
Since then, MEND has not only started talking tough again but has also resumed attacks, blowing up a Shell pipeline, and ransacking a facility belonging to Exxon Mobil.
The Delta insurgency looks certain to become worse next year as the MEND accuses the government of conniving with Angola to arrest Okah. However, Yar'Adua's request that Angola should extradite Okah to face trial in Nigeria is bound to keep the MEND belligerence in check, at least until it becomes clear whether the government would jail Okah or release him to appease to the people of the Niger Delta.
But as things are, even if Okah were allowed to walk away a free man on his return from Angola, there would be a new cause for concern with the rivalry between two militant groups in the delta escalating into a turf war.
This rivalry heightened when the leader of the Niger Delta Volunteer Force, Alhaji Asari Dokubo hailed Okah's arrest describing him as a mere criminal. It would appear that there is no way out of the dilemma.
If Okah is held and tried in Nigeria, his movement will take to arms whereas Dakubo will cause problems if the rival goes scot-free.
Already Royal Dutch Shell the biggest oil company in Nigeria, is considering shedding $900 (Sh60 billion) worth of investment in two Nigerian offshore blocks.
Recently, Shell hinted that it would cut costs and jobs at its Nigerian operations following months of unrest in the Niger Delta and pressure by the Federal Government to renegotiate contracts. It is feared that other oil majors might follow suit.
The militancy in the Niger Delta would hurt the Nigerian economy drastically if the high price of oil in the international market falls significantly in 2008. Some months back Nigeria had to dip hands into its oil savings called Excess Crude Fund to cover a the short fall in oil revenues owing to the problem in the Niger Delta.
So far, the price jump to near $100 (Sh6,200) per barrel has made up for the loss in sales volume.
The moment there is a slide in price, Nigeria feels the pinch as oil revenues amount to almost 95 per cent of its yearly foreign exchange earnings.
In November, Nigeria indirectly acknowledged the MEND's capacity destabilisation when it accused the militias of killing 19 Cameroonian soldiers. Cameroon retaliated, killing 10 Nigerians. As Nigeria sent more troops to the border as war looked imminent, the Nigerian Senate, the upper chamber of the bicameral national legislature, passed a motion calling on the nation to reverse its handing over of the oil-rich Bakassi Peninsular to Cameroon. This was in contravention of an International Court of Justice ruling after decades of dispute.
How Yar'Adua handles it will determine whether Nigeria may know peace or not in the coming year as Cameroon is bound to fight for the peninsular.
Enter political uncertainty
Throw into the oil-generated crisis political uncertainty and things begin to look really bleak for Nigeria.
Already Abuja is awash with speculations about what would happen should President Yar'Adua's election be annulled.
So far, tribunals have invalidated the elections of five state governors. Two in Anambra and Rivers States were not even given the chance to re-contest. One was told that the election that saw him in public office was null and void as the tenure of the incumbent would not expire until 2010.
It is expected that over 26 of Nigeria's 36 state governors will be thrown out by the tribunals over election rigging, thus giving a judicial approval to the widely held belief that the polls were flawed.
Yet, the removal of the state governors is hardly the cause for national concern. The real problem is that it is becoming clearer by the day from the tribunal proceedings -- that the presidential election may most likely be invalidated too.
By mid-October, the President had told close aides that he would not appeal against the Supreme Court if the tribunal nullified his election. Should that happen, Nigeria will be thrown into a politico-economic tailspin.
First, President Yar'Adua could remain in office till another election is held. Second he could opt out with the Senate President running the country until another President is elected. The first scenario is provided for in the Electoral Act that guided the last general elections.
So far, no one has tested its constitutionality in court. Should one do so in a context of an annulled election matters would get complicated.
Whatever happens, the constitution demands that a fresh election must held within three months.
This time frame would be the real source of the danger. A large percentage of Nigerians have no faith in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) leadership, which has been roundly condemned for conducting the worst election in modern times, to handle the expected presidential elections. This mistrust is buttressed by the fact it has been demonstrated that the INEC chief was sponsored into that sensitive position by Uba, a former aide to Obasanjo, whose election as Anambra State Governor lasted for only three weeks.
Whether or not the INEC leadership, as it is presently constituted remains,it will require more than three months to conduct another election. An updated voters' register is long overdue and its preparation will certainly take more than 90 days.
The problem would most likely begin from here as many political parties would not want Yar'Adua to contest that election as an incumbent.
Even, Yar'Adua's own party, the PDP may not field him - if the immediate past President, Obasanjo, and the party leadership have their way. Already, a group headed by Adamu Ciroma, a finance minister under Obasanjo, has started the search for a northerner to succeed fellow northerner Yar'Adua.
There is also the possibility of having an interim national government, which the Obasanjo camp is waiting for as is the former military president Ibrahim Babangida's group.
The Obasanjo camp may appear weak but it has certain advantages.
Almost all of Obasanjo's aides that did not run for elective offices are still at their desks, which begs the question why Yar'Adua retained them.
The answer lies in Gen Abdulahi Muhammed (rtd) -- Obasanjo's Chief of Staff for eight years and now Yar'Adua's Chief of Staff too. He is the new power house in the Aso Rock Presidential Villa and the person Obasanjo is pinning all his political hopes on.
Gen Muhammed, an Intelligence officer, was a colonel in 1975, when he and a handful of others, including, Yar'Adua's elder brother Shehu (now dead), plotted the coup that brought the triumvirate of Brig. Murtala Muhammed, Obasanjo and Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma to succeed Gen Yakubu Gowon. Gen Muhammed is about the only real member of the inner core of the coup plotters alive and definitely the only one still around the corridors of power, having been National Security Adviser to Obasanjo's predecessor, Gen Abdusalami Abubakar.
Gen Muhammed has many times given notice that he wanted to retire but he is still around because he is said to be waiting in the wings to assume power as head of the ING.
The likely scenario is that it will be argued that Gen Muhammed is apolitical but experienced enough to hold Nigeria together as he has been in government for long. His military background will also be said to be a plus while keeping Abuja safe for Obasanjo.
Obasanjo is not out of the equation for his supporters might revive his quest for a third term should the National Assembly amend the constitution to allow it. This is not far-fetched as the National Assembly has pledged to amend the constitution which Yar'Adua is supportive of.
Nigerians may not know it but the man Obasanjo used to ram in support for his failed third term bid and in getting the last April polls to go his way, Nuhu Ribadu, has become active again in advancing pro-Obasanjo plans. Ribadu is the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) chairman.
It is said that after meeting Obasanjo in early June, Ribadu began to arraign Yar'Adua's former governor colleagues, distancing them from him, so that if the presidential poll was cancelled, Yar'Adua would have scant support among his former co-governors.
Yar'Adua's ratings had remained high everywhere until Ribadu began to spread the message that the President was shielding his former co-governors from being prosecuted for corruption.
But what Nigerians have seen is the face off between Ribadu and the Attorney General of the Federation and Justice Minister, Michael Aandookaa, over power. However, if it was just a power-tussle, the president would have solved the problem in October when he summoned Ribadu and Aandookaa and asked what the problem between them was, Aandookkaa replied that he wanted Ribadu to report to him as he was the federation's prosecutor-in-chief.
Yar'Adua then asked Ribadu to do so whereupon Ribadu threatened to resign than report to the Attorney General.
The president reportedly ended the meeting by daring Ribadu to resign. A surprised Ribadu spent next three hours trying to gain audience with the President but he refused to see him. The resignation letter is yet to come.
Meanwhile, Ribadu has continued with his EFCC offensive against a former state governor James Ibori. So far, Ribadu's plans have worked well. For instance, many Nigerians now blame Aondoakaa and Yar'Adua for refusing to cooperate with the London Metropolitan Police that has been investigating Ibori.
However, a document this reporter acquired obviously shows that the London request for cooperation against Ibori was defective as the request did not come from "a competent authority to make such a request under the Mutual Legal Assistant Agreement between the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria Concerning the Investigation and Prosecution of Crime and the Confiscation of the Proceeds of Crime, 1989", as Aondoakaa's reply noted.
Such details are omitted by a section of the Nigerian press but, having in his post for over four years, Ribadu, should be conversant with the details of that treaty.
Ribadu's used his anti-corruption agency to discredit Obasanjo's political enemies ahead of the April 2007 elections but his sins are now forgotten. He had produced reports indicting dozens of politicians, who were opposed to Obasanjo's Third Term bid, and which INEC acted upon to bar such persons from contesting the elections.
Courts have been reversing such decisions in ruling after ruling. To show that INEC was insincere, scarcely any of those so barred from the polls have been prosecuted six months after.
One of them, Amaechi, is now the Rivers State Governor after the Supreme Court declared him the PDP's rightful candidate as he was changed after he had won the party primaries and was substituted with his cousin who never contested the primaries.
Ahead of the expected change in Yar'Adua's tenure at the Aso Rock Presidential Villa, an intense fight is on for the control of the ruling PDP. November 1 saw an anti-Obasanjo group in the House of Representatives kick out former Speaker Patricia Etteh whom Obasanjo had foisted on the House. Then the group vowed to affect the party convention where new party officials would have been elected. The convention has now been postponed indefinitely, occasioning calm before the storm.
If Yar'Adua's election is not nullified, the storm may die out. If it is, a titanic fight that might see the generals in power again could break out. People have began to speak about this possibility in hushed tones but there is a feeling that a military government would be resisted, its excuse of restoring sanity and filling a power vacuum notwithstanding. The military option emerged during Obasanjo's bid for a third team. Unfortunately, it has not fully receded and the feared power vacuum, should the polls be annulled, is not making things any better.
Africa Insight is an initiative of the Nation Media Group's Africa Media Network Project.
Copyright The Nation. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com).
Gale Document Number:A172673925
